Our Future

           Climate change is a change in the weather and environment of an area (Environmental Protection Agency).  The main cause of climate change today is people adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere (Environmental Protection Agency). 

Global warming is when the average temperature of the Earth rises over the course of a century (“Global Warming: Feature Articles.”).  Humans are mainly responsible for global warming in recent times because of the greenhouse gases we release as we burn fossil fuels (“Global Warming: Feature Articles.”).  Humans haven’t always had such an impact on global warming.  In the past, the Earth underwent climate change on its own.  However, global warming is now happening at a much quicker rate than it did in the past (“Global Warming: Feature Articles.”).  Natural causes still affect the Earth’s change in climate today, but not enough to explain the rapid increase in temperatures of late.  Scientists have made models of what will happen if we continue to use more and more fossil fuel.  They expect Earth’s temperature to rise, possibly rising between 2°C and 6°C by the end of the 21st century.  People may wonder why this is such a big deal (“Global Warming: Feature Articles.”).  Global warming affect more than just the Earth’s temperature.  It will change “rainfall patterns, amplifies coastal erosion, lengthens the growing season in some regions, melts ice caps and glaciers, and alters the ranges of some infectious diseases (“Global Warming: Feature Articles.”).”  Scientists are able to see some of these changes already happening today (“Global Warming: Feature Articles.”).

          Activity occurring on the Sun can cause changes to the Earth as well (The Old Farmer's Almanac).  Sunspots, magnetic storms on the Sun’s surface, increase and decrease over an eleven year period (The Old Farmer's Almanac).    Sunspots have been decreasing in recent years.  This is alarming because very few sunspots were seen from 1645 to 1715, possibly leading to a period of time known as the Little Ice Age in Western Europe.  During this time glaciers advanced, tree growth was stunted, animals died, crops failed, and people because sick and hungry (Windows to the Universe).  There may be other factors involved in the cooling that led to the Little Ice Age, but scientists do believe less heat was able to reach the Earth during this time due to the few amount of sun spots (Cooper-White).

(Cooper-White)

Scientists have also noticed global warming on the Earth at times when sunspots were very active (The Old Farmer’s Almanac).  A medieval warming period occurred from approximately 950 until 1100 (The Old Farmer’s Almanac).  Scientists believe the Vikings were able to better explore during this period because of the warmer climate.  Later passages they had gone through would become blocked by sea ice (The Old Farmer’s Almanac).  

What does that mean for the future of this planet?  It is interesting to note that most ice age periods were preceded by a warming period (Dykes).  We are currently in an interglacial period, which is following patterns similar to previous interglacial periods.  “[M]ost interglacial periods begin with an abrupt warming, peek sharply, then begin a gradual decent into cooler conditions before plunging rather more rapidly toward the freezer (Dykes).”  The current one seems to be following this pattern.  About 7,000 years ago temperatures peaked and then declined (Dykes).  Based on previous interglacial periods, scientists have estimated that we could experience an ice age in approximately 1,500 years (Dykes).  The article “Are We Holding a New Ice Age at Bay” points out that this may be due to human activity rather than simply following the pattern of previous interglacial periods (Dykes).  Our release of greenhouse gases could be reversing the cooling trend.   

Milutin Milankovitch was a Serbian astronomer who looked at the Earth’s orbit ("Astronomical Theory of Climate Change.").  He found that the Earth wavers in its orbit, causing changes in the seasons ("Astronomical Theory of Climate Change.").  According to the OSS Foundation, the three main factors that determine changes in the cycle are, “changes in the shape of the Earth's orbit around the sun, the tilt of the Earth's rotation axis, and the wobble of our axis (“Milankovitch Cycles”).”  According to Milankovitch, these changes cause ice ages to follow cycles, causing an ice age to occur every 100,000 years (“Milankovitch Cycles”). 

References 

"Astronomical Theory of Climate Change." NOAA Paleoclimatology Program. N.p., n.d. Web. 5 May 2014. <http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/milankovitch.html>.

Cooper-White, Macrina. "Sun Scientists Debate Whether Solar Lull Could Trigger Another 'Little Ice Age'." The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 24 Jan. 2014. Web. 22 Apr. 2014. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/24/solar-lull-little-ice-age-sun-scientists_n_4645248.html>.

Dykes, John S. "Are We Holding a New Ice Age at Bay?." Wall Street Journal [New York] 14 Jan. 2012: n. pag. The Wall Street Journal. Web. 22 Apr. 2014.

Environmental Protection Agency. "Frequently Asked Questions." Environmental Protection Agency. Environmental Protection Agency, n.d. Web. 22 Apr. 2014. <http://www.epa.gov/climatestudents/faq.html>.

“Global Warming: Feature Articles." Global Warming : Feature Articles. N.p., n.d. Web. 2 May 2014. <http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/>.

"Milankovitch Cycles." OSS Foundation. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Apr. 2014. <http://ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming/milankovitch-cycles>.

The Old Farmer's Almanac. "Solar Activity, Solar Cycle Predictions, and Sunspots." Sunspots, solar flares, solar cycles, and how the Sun affects weather. N.p., n.d. Web. 21 Apr. 2014. <http://www.almanac.com/sunspotupdate>.

Windows to the Universe. "The Little Ice Age." Windows to the Universe. N.p., n.d. Web. 22 Apr. 2014. <http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/climate/little_ice_age.html>.